Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 27.975954 29.865651 31.900368 34.268890 36.969499 39.976652 43.612641
2025-11-23 25.432280 28.025725 30.987903 34.675300 39.222998 44.764819 52.228389
2025-11-30 23.759349 26.679405 30.136010 34.625977 40.462024 48.045676 59.143856
2025-12-07 22.337172 25.430580 29.191031 34.237804 41.077769 50.455693 65.232219
2025-12-14 20.707324 23.771992 27.558392 32.744464 39.964032 50.220953 67.237257
2025-12-21 19.969245 23.158883 27.179198 32.828169 40.967787 53.091632 74.704363
2025-12-28 19.449989 22.776103 27.049742 33.207163 42.393044 56.769597 84.529634
2026-01-04 18.587007 21.891384 26.186308 32.469781 42.048958 57.526240 89.075260
2026-01-11 18.296078 21.736493 26.287042 33.103134 43.854464 62.148164 103.079906
2026-01-18 17.921238 21.444005 26.171618 33.395372 45.131260 66.052297 117.273286
2026-01-25 17.296082 20.781399 25.498255 32.790271 44.847934 66.967074 124.392732
2026-02-01 16.810953 20.288709 25.038525 32.476213 45.018608 68.789988 134.995260
2026-02-08 16.072284 19.492197 24.210250 31.704382 44.625852 70.062179 147.323486
2026-02-15 15.715483 19.218771 24.136029 32.143269 46.507813 76.851041 187.048885
2026-02-22 15.267297 18.785270 23.786712 32.085154 47.436203 81.776657 229.033040
2026-03-01 14.787910 18.282021 23.299386 31.748606 47.771077 85.383975 274.408179
2026-03-08 14.104382 17.457073 22.283071 30.439606 46.002453 82.985984 277.132138
2026-03-15 13.807368 17.178212 22.083839 30.513183 47.059138 88.723862 363.939820
2026-03-22 13.592603 17.007823 22.038815 30.845735 48.706038 96.939460 548.365396
2026-03-29 13.171022 16.516471 21.467837 30.198340 48.134066 97.986093 655.098276
2026-04-05 13.040843 16.450461 21.561487 30.754490 50.336156 109.538648 1493.313999
2026-04-12 12.854213 16.291480 21.496600 31.010750 51.894367 119.894457 7648.493089
2026-04-19 12.518328 15.895772 21.031302 30.479896 51.478658 122.072146 NaN